November 24: TWC Issue 3

Good Moo-rning, Legends! šŸ®āœØ
Exams results are just 5 days away for our ANU famā€”hang tight, youā€™re almost there! šŸŽ“šŸ’Ŗ

Itā€™s a bit of a slow week at the office, with coffee breaks feeling longer than meetings. And of course, everyoneā€™s still processing Trumpā€™s election winā€”because, letā€™s be honest, geopolitics feels like the worldā€™s spiciest reality show right now.

Hereā€™s to surviving the weekā€”one coffee and deep breath at a time! šŸ„ā˜•

Markets (USD) - Weekly

NASDAQ

19,003.65

+1.73%

S&P 500

5,969.34

+1.68%

D-JIA

44,296.51

+1.96%

2-Year Yield

4.384%

+7.7 bps

10-Year Yield

4.411%

-3.4 bps

Bitcoin

$98,552.72

+7.88%

Nvidia

$141.95

+1.86%

November 21

šŸ’»āš”ļøNvidia Soars While Huawei Hustles: AI Chip Wars Heat Up

Image Source: Raysonho, Scalable Grid Engine

Nvidiaā€™s latest Q3 earnings have solidified its spot as the AI kingpin. With revenue hitting a record $35.1 billion, well above expectations, and its Data Center business (its main cash cow) raked in $30.8 billion (up 112% from last year). Gaming revenue also impressed at $3.3 billion, beating forecasts.

Oh, and theyā€™re already teasing their next big thing: The Blackwell chip, with shipments starting now and full production ramping up next year. But, hold onto your GPUsā€”President-elect Trumpā€™s potential tariffs on Taiwan-made chips (Nvidiaā€™s supplier: TSMC) could dent margins or jack up prices. For now though, Nvidiaā€™s 192% YTD stock gain leaves competitors like AMD and Intel far behind.

Meanwhile, Huawei is stepping up to fill the gap left by Nvidia after U.S. restrictions barred the California-based chip giant from shipping its GPUs to China. Enter Huaweiā€™s Ascend 910C, an AI chip targeting mass production by 2025 with samples already sent to major players like ByteDance. Pre-orders top 70,000 unitsā€”a cool $2 billion in potential sales.

November 18

Only With Us in Spirit?

Artwork Source: YordiBlu, X, and Companieslogo.com

Spirit Airlines has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Monday after struggling amid soaring debts and intense competition. Known for its low-cost bare-bones ticket model (limited amenities), Spirit has faced a string of setbacks recently including a blocked merger with JetBlue and ongoing engine issues from supplier Pratt & Whitney. The airline has reported losses exceeding $2.2 billion since 2020, with around $9 billion in debt.

Despite these challenges, the spirit remains high over at Spirit Airlines HQ as CEO Ted Christie stated that their recent debt restructuring deal with bondholders signals a strong vote of confidence and that customers can still use their tickets, credits and loyalty points as normal throughout the bankruptcy process. Additionally, the airlineā€™s 12,800 employees are expected to continue working as planned as the airline hopes to exit bankruptcy by early next year.

November 19

Grand Theft, Auto Bond?

Image Source: Eric Fischer, Wikipedia Commons

Auto-loan (car-loan) delinquency rates are at a 14-year high of 3.8%, a level not seen since the years following the GFC, with stress concentrated in lower-income borrowers as the cost-of-living crunch continues.

Despite what looks like a red flag, auto bonds are selling like hotcakes. Recent bond offerings have been over 20x oversubscribed and this year $40 billion worth of subprime auto-bonds have been purchased, so far - a jump of 17% from 2023 with investors hungry for high-returns.

However, investors believe delinquency rates are manageable as long as the US economy continues strong, but Trumpā€™s eventual return to the Oval Office and his love for aggressive economic policy might turn this bull run into a bumpy ride.

November 20

Trade War 2.0: Trump to Tariff

Image Source: rawpixel.com / U.S. Department of Agriculture

American firms are dusting off their tariff playbook as Trumpā€™s second term signals a return to steep duties on Chinese imports - this time up to 60%. Import-oriented businesses are spooked, opting to stockpile Chinese goods.

Recent data showed that Chinese exports shot up by 12.7% compared to October 2023, an increase that was forecasted to be only 5%. Still, front-loading isnā€™t a long-term fix. Many firms are accelerating their move to SE Asia with Vietnam and Cambodia gaining traction as alternative manufacturing hubs.

If Trump follows through on his election promises businesses will have no choice but to change suppliers or pay the tariffs - leading to higher prices for all consumers. RIP $10 Temu hauls, you will be missed.

November 21

šŸ“‰ Adani $27 Billion Meltdown: Bribes, Bonds, and Big Troubles

Image Source: Free Malaysia Today

Adani Group stocks took a nosedive on Thursday, wiping out $27 billion in market value after U.S. prosecutors hit Gautam Adani with fraud and bribery charges. The allegations? $250 million in bribes paid to Indian officials to land contracts for the countryā€™s largest solar power project, projected to rake in $2 billion in profits over 20 years.

But wait, thereā€™s more. The defendants allegedly raised $3 billion in loans and bonds while keeping investors in the dark about the bribery scheme.

The fallout was brutal:

  • Flagship Adani Enterprises sank 23%, while Adani Green Energy and Adani Energy dropped 19% and 20%, respectively. Additionally, Adani Green Energy shelved plans for a $600 million bond sale.

This isnā€™t the first time Adaniā€™s faced heat. A 2023 short-seller report accused the group of fraud and stock manipulation, with Indian courts ultimately siding with Adani. Now, Adani Group is calling the latest accusations ā€œbaselessā€ and reaffirming its commitment to governance and compliance.

āš”ļøExtra Charge

  • Next, Ozempic? Pharmaceutical giants Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk lobby employers to include drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound in employee benefits.

  • Chromeā€™s Future in Jeopardy as an antitrust DOJ push could force Google to sell it, potentially fetching up to $20 billion.

  • G20 Summit Wrapped Up Tuesday, however, the consensus seems to be that leaders lacked strong commitments and specificity.

  • Expense Shenanigans Surge as employees push boundaries on their company credit cards, with plastic surgery, caravans and mortgage payments all expensed.

  • Bitcoin, XRP and Dogecoin are among the beneficiaries of SEC Chair Gary Genslerā€™s resignation and President-elect Trumpā€™s pro-crypto stance.

WCā€™s Favourite Cartoon of the Week

Trump Picks Nominees by Gary McCoy, Shiloh, IL

**The cartoon does not reflect the opinions of the TWC crew, we just thought it was funny

Jargon of the Week

  • Subprime: Debt borrowed by individuals with poor or no credit history - hence, riskier but has a higher interest rate to compensate investors.

  • Auto-bond: A collateralized debt obligation much like mortgage-backed securities where the proceeds from auto loans are bundled into a debt security.

  • Tariff: A protectionist trade policy that levies a tax on the import of foreign goods, often leading to an increase in the price paid by consumers.

  • Front-loading: To spread costs/purchases towards the beginning of a process or business venture rather than spread across the projectā€™s duration.

  • Short-seller: In this case, a firm that profits from a decline in a stockā€™s price.