TWC Retooling 🔧: April 20, Issue 23

He Is Risen (And So Have Egg Prices)🥚📈,

Let’s address the bunny in the room here. 🐰

We’ve been coking up newsletter issues with the length of Tolstoy and the humor of a finance professor on decaf lately. These few weeks had too many overcooked jokes and underseasoned storytelling, and for that, dear reader, we pledge to do better.

But consider this our resurrection arc. New easter, new us. We’ve slimmed down our issue and brought back the killer formula: just five hot stories, the Extra Charge, Jargon Buster, and your favorite cartoon to round it out.

We’ve also said goodbye to FMT, our beloved photo supplier we’ve leeched off for the longest, and leveled up with a shiny Adobe Stock license. Real visuals, folks.

So, let the good journalism begin and mediocre memes gently fade away as we enjoy the Easter season with non-inflated chocolate egg prices.

Markets (USD) - Weekly

NASDAQ

16,286.45

-0.44%

S&P 500

5,282.70

+0.52%

D-JIA

39,142.23

-0.89%

2-Year Yield

3.809%

-16.80bps

10-Year Yield

4.330%

-16.40bps

Bitcoin

$85,387.34

+2.31%

GOOG (Class C)

$153.36

-1.49%

April 18

Ad-vantage Lost :(

Image Source: JHVE Photos, Adobe Stock Photos

Google’s ($GOOGL ( ▼ 1.42% )) got 99 problems, and…two of them are federal judges…In an antitrust ruling1 this week, a U.S. judge found Google guilty of being an illegal monopolist—again. This time, it isn’t about its search engines, but its digital advertising empire, a business that raked in a cool $31 billion last year.

Here is why the DOJ thinks Google is a monpolist: Google buids tools for publishers (like media sites) to sell ads and for advertisers to buy them. Then it plays matchmaker between the two whilst quietly taking a 20% cut on every deal. The DOJ claims Google locks publishers into an ecosystem and makes it near impossible to leave. Think of it as owning a hotel, the booking platform, and the room service and making everyone have to use all three.

Unsurprisingly, Google disagrees. They say publishers want their tools because “simple, affordable and effective.” (fair enough). They’re appealing the ruling, which could take years to resolve. The DOJ is hinting that Google may need to sell off parts of its ad tech cash cow.

But wait…this isn’t really a one-off is it? Big Tech has been under the microscope across both the Trump and Biden admins. Meta (née Facebook) is fighting off efforts to separate from Instagram and WhatsApp. Amazon is tangled in a lawsuit over its e-commerce dominance. Apple is fending off claims that it locks users into its ecosystem.

So yes, the breakup vibes in Tech right now are very legit.

April 16

Hertz So Good: A Bill Ackman Comeback Story

Image Source: eqroy, Adobe Stock Photos

$HTZ ( ▲ 44.31% ) (Hertz), the car rental company, is speeding back into the market spotlight this week with a stock price that closed 56% higher on Wednesday and 44% higher on Thursday. Hertz has to thank one high-profile passenger for this: billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman. Ackman and his firm, Perishing Square, revealed a nearly 20% stake in the rental car company, citing what he sees as a major turnaround opportunity.

Hertz has been through a lot, making this cosign slightly surprising. It filed for bankruptcy in 2020 during the pandemic and was revived as a meme stock. Then, just last year, the company bet big on a shiny electric future, ordering 100,000 Teslas. But EVs were costly to maintain, annoying to charge, and when Tesla cut prices on its vehicles, Hertz got burned by depreciation (losing $3 billion last year), leading to a reshuffling of management.

So why the sudden optimism? For starters, Ackman sees Hertz as a key player in what he calls an “oligopoly2” of the US rental car industry, alongside Enterprise and Avis. He believes the industry is due for a come-up. He believes Hertz’s massive fleet of over 500,000 vehicles (worth around $12 billion) will become much more valuable as tariffs drive up car prices. A 10% bump, by his math, could net Hertz a $1.2 billion gain on paper (about half its market cap).

The endorsement continues. Ackman also floated a partnership of Hertz and Uber, hinting that he’d personally be reaching out for. Uber responded publicly and welcomed the future collaboration.

April 17

United We Fall: UnitedHealth v. Medicare Costs

Image Source: zhitkov, Adobe Stock Photos

$UNH ( ▼ 22.38% ) (UnitedHealth), the U.S. private health insurance giant, just took a nasty spill this week. The company’s stock plunged nearly 23% in a single day, its worst drop since MJ’s last shot in ‘98.

What went wrong? It missed its earnings expectations. That’s it. In all seriousness, though, this is a company investors had always viewed as the “safe bet” in healthcare—steady, reliable, and always beating the Street. So when the earnings missed ($7.20 share vs. 7.29 expected), revenue missed ($109.6 billion vs. $111.6 billion forecast), and the forward guidance3 was reduced, it became a nasty 1-2 combo.

UnitedHealth attributes the misstep to seniors using more outpatient and physician services4 as opposed to its Medicare Advantage5 plan, more than expected.

Despite the tumble, UnitedHealth CEO Andrew Witty calls these issues “highly addressable” and promised aggressive action to turn things around. And there’s a faint glimmer on the horizon: a 5.06% federal reimbursement rate hike for 2026 announced by Trump. This hike is expected to inject $25 billion industry-wide—music to the ears for Witty.

April 14-18

The Next One on the Chopping Block: Harvard

Image source: Wikimedia Commons

Harvard’s not just under fire — it’s in the crosshairs. The Trump administration has launched a three-pronged assault on the Ivy League giant, signaling that no campus, no matter how elite, is off-limits.

  1. Federal Funds - Frozen

More than $2 billion in grants and contracts have been frozen, with up to $9 billion on the line. Research into cancer, tuberculosis, and public health is already being derailed. Why? Harvard refused to comply with demands to discipline pro-Palestinian student groups and enforce viewpoint diversity.

  1. IRS Targets Tax-Exempt Status

The IRS is prepping to revoke Harvard’s tax-exempt status, a nuclear option that could trigger millions in taxes on its $53.2 billion endowment. The White House says Harvard has crossed the line from education into politics. Tax law experts? They say this is uncharted territory.

  1. International Students? Deported (not really)

Homeland Security is threatening to revoke Harvard’s ability to host international students, over a quarter of its student body, unless it hands over records on alleged “illegal activity.

April 14-18

If You Can’t Beat Them, Buy Them

Image Source: Flickr

($META ( ▼ 0.17% )) Meta’s back in the courtroom hot seat, and this time the FTC wants blood, or, more specifically, Instagram and WhatsApp. The case argues that Meta didn’t just acquire these platforms to grow them, but to neutralize rivals before they got too big.

Meta bought Instagram in 2012 for $1 billion and WhatsApp in 2014 for $19 billion both of which the FTC actually approved at the time. But now, more than a decade later, the agency’s trying to reverse course, saying Meta has built an illegal monopoly over “personal social networking.”

Zuckerberg hit the stand defending the deals, saying it wasn’t about killing competition rather it was the classic "build vs. buy" logic. Internal emails say otherwise — including a 2012 message where Zuck wrote, “Instagram is growing so much faster than us that we had to buy them.”

The FTC wants Meta to spin off Instagram and WhatsApp, essentially breaking up the company. It’s a rare and risky move. Meta argues it faces fierce competition from TikTok (1.5B users), YouTube (2.7B users), and even Snapchat (750M users). If the FTC wins, it’ll be the biggest Big Tech breakup in decades and a serious dent in Zuck’s empire.

  • Eli Lilly’s new weight-loss pill, orforglipron, matched Ozempic’s preformance in a major trial and Novo Nordisk is maulding.

  • A former FAA contractor has pleaded guilty to secretly acting as an agent for Iran, passing sensitive data to Iranian intelligence over a seven-year period.

  • Temu and Shein saw US sales surge up to 60% in early April as shoppers raced to beat the upcoming tariff.

  • China is restricting exports of seven rare earth metals crucial to US tech and defense, using export restrictions to gain leverage in the ongoing trade fight.

  • Nvidia is taking a $5.5 billion hit after new US export restrictions blocked its AI chips from reaching China.

  • UC Riverside scientists say alien life could be detected by spotting unusual gases like methyl halides on distant ocean-covered planets, using current telescopes like James Webb.

  1. Antitrust Ruling: When a court determines that a company has engaged in practices that unlawfully restrict competition. However, companies typically appeal, and the legal process can extend over several years before any definitive outcomes are realized.

  2. Oligopoly: A market structure characterized by a small number of firms (more than one) that dominate the industry. In Economics, these firms have price-making power and can restrict output, intentionally or not.

  3. Forward Guidance: In this case, (not in the Central Bank’s case) a public communication of a company about its expectations about future performance.

  4. Outpatient & Physician Services: Outpatient services refer to medical procedures/consultations that do not require an overnight hospital stay. Physician services refer to a broader term that encompasses all medical services provided by doctors.

  5. Medicare Advantage: An alternative to the U.S. Medicare plan offered by private health insurance companies. These plans offer additional benefits like vision, dental, and wellness programs in addition to services covered by Medicare. However, out-of-pocket costs may be higher for Medicare Advantage holders.

By Steve Green, courtesy of Creators.com

##Cartoon does not reflect the opinions of the TWC crew, we just thought it was funny##

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DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is for educational purposes only, and is not intended as financial advice, investment guidance, or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. While we strive for accuracy, we cannot guarantee all information is error-free. Always exercise caution and conduct your own research before making financial decisions.