“THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” That was Trump’s financial advice to America at 9:37 a.m. on a quiet Wednesday morning. By lunchtime, the stock market had exploded upward—S&P 500 up 9.5%, $4 trillion in paper wealth¹ recovered, and Trump Media stock (ticker: DJT, conveniently also his initials) soaring 22.7%.

What caused the boom? Trump’s unexpected announcement of a 90-day pause on most global tariffs, a sharp reversal from his earlier “Liberation Day” stance (learn more) that had spooked markets and left investors curled up in the fetal position. The move was seen as a cooling-off gesture to calm growing fears of a trade war-induced recession. But it wasn’t a full retreat — tariffs on Chinese imports were raised to 125%, keeping the pressure on Beijing.

Given the timing of it all, suspicion followed. Critics—including a barber, several senators, and Trump’s own trade rep mid-testimony—are now asking: Was this all a market manipulation scheme?

Sen. Adam Schiff is leading the call for an insider trading investigation, suggesting Trump’s timely “buy” message just before the tariff reversal smells fishier than Mar-a-Lago’s buffet. Schiff wants answers: Did Trump know he was going to lift tariffs when he made that post? Did others cash in on it? And why did DJT² stock (which he still indirectly owns) jump nearly $415 million in value on the day?

Even Trump’s own team was seemingly left in the dark. His trade rep Jamieson Greer, blindsided mid-Congressional grilling, could only mutter “I don’t disclose my conversations with the president” while being chewed out by Rep. Steven Horsford: “This is amateur hour… This is not a game. This is real life.”

Meanwhile, when asked by reporters exactly when he decided to pause the tariffs, Trump offered this: “For a period of a time. I would say this morning. Over the last few days, I’ve been thinking about it.” The White House, however, insisted this was all part of the plan — Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called it the president’s “art of the deal” at work.

It was a historic selloff (and then a massive rebound) for longer-term bonds this week, sparked by one thing: tariff turmoil. President Trump’s aggressive new trade barriers have thrown markets into panic mode, and the bond market took the hit.

Here’s how ugly it got:

• The 30-year U.S. Treasury yields sold-off³ by 0.482% (482 bps), the biggest one-week jump since 1987.

• The 10-year yields sold-off³ by 0.5% (50bps) to just under 4.5%, its largest weekly move since 2001.

Normally, when markets freak out, investors run to (US) Treasuries for safety. Not this time. Stocks were diving and yields are selling-off³—meaning investors are dumping bonds instead of hiding in them. That’s rare. And really bad for the US economy.

So, what’s going on?

• Traders are bracing for more volatility and getting margin-called⁴, triggering fire sales across bonds and gold.

• Inflation fears are creeping back in (CPI = 3.1% currently), and Friday’s UMich. survey data showed 12 month inflation expectations rose to 6.7%

This week was a flashing red warning sign and the Fed is increasingly unlikely to cut rates in this incredibly volatile environment. If bond markets are this jumpy now, imagine what happens if things really go south – 90 days and counting.

This past week, more than 100 Chinese companies have announced over ¥20 billion (US$2.73B) in stock buy-backs, with household names like PetroChina, CNOOC, Midea, and CATL leading the charge. PetroChina’s controlling shareholder pledged up to ¥5.6 billion. CNOOC is buying back ¥4 billion. Midea is throwing in ¥3 billion. And CATL, the electric vehicle battery giant gearing up for a $5 billion Hong Kong IPO, set aside as much as ¥8 billion to defend its share price.

But this wasn’t just a corporate show of faith. China’s central bank publicly backed the operation, vowing to support buy-backs with its financial tools and relending facilities. Meanwhile, state-backed heavyweights like China Chengtong Holdings and China Reform Holdings tapped into the nation’s ¥1.63 trillion in state-owned capital, allocating ¥100 billion specifically for stock purchases.

So why does this work? When markets tumble, investors often panic and start selling their shares out of fear that prices will fall even further. However, when a company (or an entire country) starts buying up its own shares, it’s sending a clear message: we believe in the future and we’re willing to invest in ourselves. That kind of signal helps stop the chain reaction of panic selling, where investors sell just because everyone else is.

Interestingly, whether causation or correlation, the CSI 300 Index (which tracks 300 of the largest companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen) actually rose 1.3% on Thursday. That’s despite the fact that Trump excluded China from his 90-day tariff pause.

And more’s on the way. Analysts expect more economic support, from interest rate cuts and central bank bond purchases to stock market stabilization funds and even family subsidies to boost spending. Goldman Sachs now expects 60 basis points of rate cuts this year, up from 40, for China.

Markets just forced a presidential pivot.

The bond market went full “yippy” (Trump’s words). In game theory terms, Trump swerved first in the global game of Chicken, pressured not by China, but by Wall Street (and the looming threat of a recession).

Trump’s trade war means both sides are racing toward the edge, and neither wants to be the first to flinch. It’s looking like a classic example of the Prisoner’s Dilemma.

Meanwhile, smaller countries are getting bullied into concessions. Europe, Japan, Korea? They'll likely settle. But China? According to economists, they’re in it for the long game—and prepped their public to take some pain as shown by their retalative tariffs of 125% on US goods.

Aside from that, stocks bounced back—hard. But don’t break out the champagne yet. Just because markets rallied doesn’t mean we’ve hit bottom. In fact, this might just be the eye of the storm, think 2001 or when Lehman Brothers went under (above), if historical precedent has anything to say, we have a helluva way to go.

Whilst most billionaires watched their net worths get nuked post-tariffs. Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway got richer.

The Berkshire Hathaway CEO added $11.5B to his fortune this year, making him the only billionaire in Bloomberg’s top 18 to post gains. For reference, Musk and Bezos shed a combined $170B. 

His secret? Doing nothing. Buffett entered 2025 with a record $334B cash pile after offloading $134B in stock last year (including a large chunk of Apple before it dropped 28%). While others were chasing yield or panic-selling in a sea of red, Buffett was chilling in T-bills⁵, collecting interest like it’s 2008 again.

Buffett didn’t buy because, in his words, “nothing looks compelling”. Berkshire is up 11% while the S&P500 is down 8.61% YTD.

• The Trump Adminstration has frozen $1 billion in federal funding for Cornell University and Northwestern University because investigations over antisemitism and DEI efforts were reported by unnamed officials.

• Sarah Wynn-Willaims, a former Facebook employee, testified before the Senate and said she witnessed Zuckerberg and other executives “repeatedly undermine U.S. national security and betray American values” in an attempt to grow its business in China. Meta faces an antitrust trial next week.

• Colossal Biosciences announced it created three wolf pups with traits of the Dire Wolf, a species that vanished ~13,000 years ago. The pups are named Romulus, Remus, and Khaleesi.

• Musk asked Trump to reconsider his liberation day tariffs over the previous weekend, while he intially said no, Trump eventually relented with his 90 day pause.

• Excavations in cave in Malta showed that stone-age hunter-gatherers crossed the Mediterranean, and were the first to do so before the Greeks or Phoenicians.

• Old Money 🤝 New Money as Prada acquired Versace for US$ 1.38B, facilitated by Goldman Sachs.

1. Paper Wealth: The unrealized value of assets, meaning the potential amount of money an individual or business could make if they sold their assets at market price.

2. DJT Stock: DJT is the ticker symbol for Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, Donald Trump’s social media platform.

3. Sell-off/Rally: Correct terminology for the changes in bond yields, sell-off = bond yields rose and prices fell, rally = bond yields fell and prices rose

4. Margin Call: When traders’ margin accounts fall below a certain level depending upon their leverage and current trades, the exchange requires an additional deposit into their margin accounts in order to prevent defaults when derivatives expire

5. T-bills: AKA Treasury bills are short-term debt securities issues by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. They mature in one year or less and are considered one of the safest investments, backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Although, uncharacteristically, investors have began selling T-bills recently despite market turmoil (check Article 2)

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