šŸŽ… Crypto Bells and Dividend Yells: A Holiday Edition: Dec. 8, Issue 5

Good Moo-rning, Legends! šŸ®āœØ
Itā€™s that time of year againā€”Spotify Wrapped is here, reminding us of our questionable taste in music (yes, ā€œWhale Sounds for Sleep toā€ made the top 5, thank you very much). šŸŽ¶šŸŽ§ Meanwhile, Christmas is creeping closer, and the race is on to snag presents, deck the halls, and mentally prepare for endless Mariah Carey on repeat. šŸŽ„šŸŽ

Markets (USD) - Weekly

NASDAQ

19,859.77

+0.81%

S&P 500

6,090.27

+0.25%

D-JIA

44,642.52

-0.28%

2-Year Yield

4.112%

-8.00bps

10-Year Yield

4.170%

-0.50bps

Bitcoin

$99,786.07

+3.59%

DIS

$116.73

-1.02%

December 5

āœØšŸ­ Mickeyā€™s Mega Magic Bankrolls

Image Source: ā€œI May Have to Spend Some of This Stuffā€, Carl Barks

Disney is sprinkling some pixie dust on its shareholders with a 33% dividend boost, raising payouts to $1 per share, up from last yearā€™s 75 cents. These payments will roll out in two 50-cent installments on Jan. 16 and July 23, 2025.

This comes hot on the heels of Disneyā€™s impressive (fiscal)1 Q4 earnings which feature a $321 million streaming profit, $22.6 billion in total revenue (up 6% for the quarter) and a 39% quarterly growth for EPS. For the year, EPS grew by 32% to $4.97. Disney shares (DIS) finished Wednesday trading at $116.99 apiece and are up 29% YTD.

Looking ahead, Disney expects high single-digit EPS growth in 2025, speeding up to double digits by 2026. Additionally, the company is also planning to conjure up $15 billion in cash flow, $8 billion for new investments, and $3 billion for stock buybacks2 in FY2025.

December 4

Nis-missin' a CFO

Image Source: Tony Hisgett, Wikimedia Commons

Nissan and General Motors are hitting some serious bumps in the road as economic and strategic challenges pile up. Nissanā€™s CFO Stephen Ma is reportedly on his way out, just as the company announced plans to cut 9,000 jobs. CEO Makoto Uchida has already taken a 50% pay cut this year.

Why all the belt-tightening? Nissan posted a Q3 operating loss of Ā„9.3 billion ($61 million), a sharp U-turn from last yearā€™s Ā„190.7 billion ($1.27 billion) profit. With full-year operating income now just 30% of prior forecasts and the stock down 35% YTD, investors arenā€™t exactly feeling optimistic.

Over at General Motors, things arenā€™t much smoother. The automaker is in full-on damage control mode with its struggling China business, announcing a $5.6 billion overhaul. This includes a $2.9 billion write-down3 of partnerships with SAIC Motor and $2.7 billion in cuts to production, scrapping unprofitable models from its lineup. Once a key profit engine, GMā€™s China operations have turned into a cash drain, made worse by Chinese subsidies favouring local brands as the global auto market braces for Trump-enomics.

December 4

šŸ„ŠThe Silicon Smackdown: Chinaā€™s Strikes Back

Image Source: Jacobs School of Engineering, UCSD

Chinaā€™s going all-in on the tech trade war, banning exports of gallium, germanium, and antimonyā€”crucial materials for semiconductors. This comes after the US tightened export controls on advanced chip-making tech aimed at stalling Chinaā€™s tech progress. Spoiler: Beijingā€™s not playing nice.

Gallium and germanium might sound obscure, but theyā€™re tech-world MVPs, powering everything from phones and solar panels to night-vision goggles and satellites. And China? Itā€™s the supplier, producing 94% of the worldā€™s gallium and 83% of germaniumā€”a powerful leverage move that could shake global supply chains.

Meanwhile, global tech giants are sitting tight, thanks to some savvy stockpilingā€”but if the ban drags on, expect prices to spike and production slowdowns.

In the tech arms race, chips are kingā€”and this game is far from over.

December 3

BlackRockā€™s Private-Credit Purchase

Image Source: Jim Henderson, Wikimedia Commons

BlackRock is shaking things up with its planned $12 billion all-stock purchase of HPS Investment Partners, a private credit giant managing $150 billion in assets. If all goes according to plan, the deal should close by mid-2025 after the usual due diligence4. This marks a big pivot from BlackRockā€™s traditional ā€œsafeā€ investing style focused on public equities.

The move isnā€™t out of the blueā€”Wall Street heavyweights like KKR and Apollo have been doubling down on private credit, a market currently worth $1.7 trillion and projected to hit $3.5 trillion by 2028. With annual returns often hitting double digits, itā€™s easy to see why BlackRock wants in on the action. If the deal goes through, itā€™ll cement BlackRockā€™s spot among the biggest players in Wall Streetā€™s hottest market.

December 4

šŸ’ƒ Mitsubishiā€™s Copper Caper

Image Source: Flickr

Mitsubishi Corp. has found itself in a $90 million tangle after uncovering a web of unauthorised copper trades created by its Shanghai-based trading manager, Gong Huayong. Allegedly, Gong was cooking up deals with companies tied to him personally, leaving Mitsubishi to foot the bill. Gong has since disappeared, and his phone? Cricketsā€¦.

The scandal unravelled when Mitsubishi noticed customers in its copper business defaulting on payments that were due, triggering an internal probe. The investigation found that Gong allowed some companies to defer payments on copper deals, whilst striking deals with others that Mitsubishi didnā€™t even clear as legitimate counterparties.

While $90 million is pocket change for Mitsubishi (its shares werenā€™t even hit that badly), the hit to its reputation stings regardlessā€”especially since this isnā€™t its first rogue trader rodeo. From the $2 billion copper disaster at Sumitomo in the ā€˜90s to a $300 million oil loss in 2019, the history books are starting to look like a cautionary tale for the sogo shosha5 (ē·åˆå•†ē¤¾).

As for Gong himself, a criminal complaint has been filed and the company says no more losses will be booked. However, Chinese employees at Mitsubishi are bracing for the fallout as they prepare for potentially higher scrutiny and harsher oversight.

āš”Extra Charge ļøļø

  • South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law on Tuesday which was quickly rescinded amid public protests and parliamentary opposition. Yoon eluded impeachment by a narrow margin as his party boycotted the vote.

  • French PM Michel Barnier has been ousted via a no-confidence vote, collapsing his government just three months into his tenure (we reported on this last week btw šŸ˜Š).

  • President Biden granted a full pardon to his son, erasing all federal charges and sparking debates about political favouritism.

  • Bitcoin briefly topped $100,00 before pulling back, marking a 40% rally since Trumpā€™s re-election.

  • Walmart has completed its $2.3 billion acquisition of VIZIO, integrating the TV manufacturerā€™s SmartCast OS into its advertising business in Walmart Connect.

  • Pope Francis goes electric after being gifted an electric G-Class by Mercedes-Benz, nicknamed the Popemobile.

WCā€™s Favourite Cartoon of the Week

ā€œThe Twelve Days of Tariffsā€ by Drew Sheneman, Tribune Content Agency

**Cartoon does not reflect the opinions of the TWC crew, we just thought it was funny

Jargon of the Week

  1. Calendar vs Fiscal/Financial Quarters: Calendar quarters are three-month blocks beginning in January, Q1 = Jan - Mar. Fiscal quarters are also three-month blocks but can have a different start date. Disneyā€™s Q1 starts on September 30.

  2. Stock Buyback: A payout policy where a company repurchases outstanding shares (often directly from the market) and can increase the price of its stock.

  3. Write-down: An accounting practice where an assetā€™s book value is reduced because its book value is higher than its fair market value, becoming an impaired asset.

  4. Due Diligence: A comprehensive assessment of a firm (often due to a merger or acquisition) that involves investigation to confirm relevant facts and financial information.

  5. Sogo Shosha: Japanese trading companies with highly diversified business lines engaged in trading, logistics, resource exploration and other services.

  6. Martial Law: Temporary rule by the military during times of crisis, when civil/parliamentary authorities are believed to be unable to function.